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14 April 2020

OBR publishes coronavirus analysis, suggesting GDP could fall by 35% in second quarter


The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces an 'illustrative 3-month lockdown scenario' to assess the potential impact of COVID-19 on the economy and public finances. It warns that the government's policy response will 'deliver [a] large (but hopefully temporary) shock to the economy and public finances'. Its analysis suggests real gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink by 35% in the second quarter 'but bounce back quickly' and a 'steep rise' in unemployment in the second quarter, equivalent to an increase of 2 million.


OBR coronavirus analysis

Guardian article